The recession, that is – or so says the National Institute for Economic and Social Research.
Britain’s economy grew for the first time over a three-month period since May last year, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said today but warned that the end of recession could turn to a period of stagnation.
NIESR’s monthly estimate of economic growth suggests that gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2 per cent between June and August, after a 0.3 per cent fall in the three months to the end of July.
However, NIESR added: “There may well be a period of stagnation now, with output rising in some months and falling in others; the end of the recession should not be confused with a return to normal economic conditions.”
Other positive news comes from a survey of recruitment agencies:
The research, produced by Markit Economics, finds “marginal increases” in both permanent and temporary appointments in August.
For permanent staff, this is the first increase since early 2007.
“This is first time we have seen really positive news for the UK jobs market in 17 months,” said Bernard Brown from KPMG, co-sponsor of the survey.
Still, plenty of cause for pessimism, however. Our banking system remains, to a first approximation, a shambles. Households remain heavily in debt. Unemployment (a lagging indicator, admittedly) is as high as it’s been in over a decade. We’re not out of this yet…